The new barbarians and the decline of the American empire
Everything looks the same, except when the uncontrollable changes that have occurred have to be seen.
For a long period after World War II, the United States was the largest trade surplus country on the planet. The European recovery and the rise of Japan, and then the continued growth explosion of China, transformed the United States into a trade deficit country.
But what looks like a problem can be a sign of economic strength because:
“For many economists, however, the trade deficit has been scapegoated, and they argue that the trade deficit is not itself a problem for the U.S. economy. That’s because a larger trade deficit can be the result of a stronger economy, as consumers spend and import more while higher interest rates make foreign investors more eager to place their money in the United States.”
The trajectory of the Brazilian economy was somewhat different from that of Europe and Japan, because despite the rapid industrial growth in the 1950s (a result of Getúlio Vargas' industrial policy), by the mid-1970s Brazil had become extremely indebted. However, this indebtedness began to be paradoxically exploited as a comparative advantage because defaulting on the debt could cause the collapse of the international private banking system. On this subject, I will quote here just one insightful author:
“The general staffs are currently reflecting on the deterrence of the ‘strong over the weak’. We may wonder whether the concept has any validity between North and South. When we see Ethiopian leaders voluntarily sacrificing part of their people through starvation in order to force the West to finance their megalomaniac policies, one may doubt their sensitivity to a logic of deterrence. Even more disconcerting was the determination with which the Latin American debtor countries increased their debt to the point of deliberately endangering the international financial system. They were then able to negotiate with their creditors from a position of strength. There was a true logic of deterrence of the weak over the strong. ‘I have nothing to lose, I can blow up your house, you have to comply with my demands.’ Under these conditions, one wonders whether it will ever be possible to exercise any deterrence whatsoever against such determined powers.
The South, therefore, is not so defenseless in the face of the North. A new balance is possible. It presupposes, on the part of the North, the review of all strategic concepts, the surveillance of an enormous and fragmented line, even if some zones are more unstable, concentrating the danger.” (The Empire and the New Barbarians, Jean-Chistophe Rufin, editora Biblioteca do Exército, Rio de Janeiro, 1996, p. 193/194)
The strategic review mentioned by Jean-Chistophe Rufin occurred in the US when that country restructured its power based on an efficient combination of trade deficit, financial surplus and public debt. The profits obtained by US trading partners are recycled on Wall Street, enabling the US to finance its immense war machine with public debt. Part of this public debt is used to develop new technologies that may or may not have military applications. In 2008 this model went bankrupt and has been kept artificially alive ever since.
Brazil is no longer an indebted country, but its dependence on the US has paradoxically become greater. This is because, in addition to issuing the dollars that make international transactions possible, the US has acquired another huge comparative advantage: control of the internet infrastructure, through which wealth is created and economic flows between countries have become inevitable. This allows American Big Techs to make huge profits from advertising in our territory. The American barons of technofeudalism sell software and space in data centers to Brazilian companies and public agencies. The data generated on the Internet by Brazilian citizens quickly became an immense source of economic, political, electoral and geostrategic power for American public and private institutions.
The Brazilian reaction to the reorganization of the Northern empire was to bet on the creation of the G-20 and the BRICS. The new economic/financial/technological deterrent power created and enjoyed by the US is being eroded in several ways. In Europe, Russia defeated the US war effort in Ukraine. But the US has strengthened its control over the economies of EU countries. In Asia and the Middle East, the US presence is being reduced through China's foreign policy of peaceful coexistence and prosperity.
In Latin America, the electoral defeats of pro-US right-wing candidates and the failed coups d'état suggest the consolidation of an unfavorable scenario for Washington. Maduro's victory in Venezuela is yet another nail in Uncle Sam's coffin. It will also be felt in Brazil as a stake in the heart of Bolsonarism.
The world is undergoing immense changes at an accelerated pace, but the direction in which it is heading is not the one desired by the far right. Its failure in France certainly shook the self-confidence of the American ideologues of the alt-right. Neither the Washington Consensus nor the survival of the empire based on the production and dissemination of Fake News. Paris flirts with the BRICS and could become the central element in the consolidation of the great global turnaround.
For almost 100 years, the Saudi regime was one of the main partners of the United States. Military equipment “made in the USA” was and still is purchased in large quantities by Saudi Arabia. In addition, the Saud family recycles on Wall Street the dollars acquired by supplying the Americans with oil. But Washington can no longer even trust historical partners like the Saudi royal family.
With Saudi Arabia joining the BRICS, everything indicates that the de-dollarization of the world economy will be inevitable. This will significantly reduce the US financial surplus.
Soon, the trade deficit and public debt of that country will cease to be comparative advantages and will become two dire problems for the Americans. Neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump can pacify the world without causing harm to the empire. And neither will be able to contain the social conflicts resulting from the explosion of poverty within the US.
The expanded BRICS is not a military alliance. China, Russia, Iran, Brazil, etc. want to coexist with the US. But the Americans will hardly accept no longer being the first among unequal and subordinate peoples (inferior peoples according to the theology of the alt-right). Will the desire of the US rulers to preserve the imperial/financial hegemony of that country at any cost provoke a nuclear war or just accelerate the decline of the White Ass Apes Empire? This is a question that only time will be able to answer.
France Insoumise to hold mass rally over Macron's government exclusion
The protest is in response to President Emmanuel Macron's actions, which they describe as a "seizure of power" by excluding the left-wing coalition from forming a government, even though the coalition won the elections.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/france-insoumise-to-hold-mass-rally-over-macron-s-government