Milei won, so what?

Here I will deal with the election of the new Argentine president from a particularly Brazilian perspective.

In my country, Javier Milei's victory caused euphoria among Bolsonarists. This was predictable, even though a breakdown in relations between Brazil and Argentina is unlikely. Bilateral trade is important for both countries and Argentine businesspeople obviously cannot simply ignore the profits they obtain by exporting products to Brazil.

The new Argentine president systematically attacked Lula during the election. Despite this, fulfilling his obligation as head of state, the Brazilian president congratulated Javier Milei on his victory. Lula's pragmatism is evident. But this does not mean that the relationship between the two governments will be smooth.

Milei is a clone of Jair Bolsonaro just as Bolsonaro himself was a clone of Donald Trump. Therefore, no one should be surprised if Brazil occupies the same position during the Milei government that China occupied during the Bolsonaro government.

As much as he felt obliged to attack the Chinese communists, the Brazilian genocidal captain simply could not break diplomatic and commercial relations with Beijing. The “business as usual” of Brazilian grain and mineral exporters was a much greater force than the irrational hatred spewed daily for electoral reasons. Milei will continue to attack Lula, but it is unlikely that the Argentine president will stop acting pragmatically for fear of causing economic losses to Argentine beneficiaries of bilateral trade with Brazil.

Jair Bolsonaro could not seriously consider Brazil's withdrawal from the BRICS. After several rounds of negotiations, Argentine diplomats managed to find space for Argentina in the bloc that is causing a turnaround on the world stage. Will Javier Milei abandon or adopt this long-term project? That's a difficult question to answer. But one thing is certain: the situation of the president of Argentina in relation to the BRICS is different from the situation in which Bolsonaro found himself.

In 2023, BRICS is a promise for Argentine businesspeople. In 2018, the block was already becoming a profitable reality for Brazilian businesspeople. The power of inertia of “business as usual” that prevented Bolsonaro from leaving the bloc is not yet a reality in Milei’s case.

The rivalry between the two countries on the football pitch will remain the same. However, it seems clear to me that a curious phenomenon could begin to occur in the coming years. To differentiate themselves from PT supporters who support the Brazilian team, Bolsonaro's supporters will start supporting the Argentina team. This will probably be considered ridiculous in the country governed by Javier Milei, whose racists like to call Brazilians "macaquitos brasileños de los gringos". However, the “Brazilian macaquitos of Argentines” will be the source of jokes in Brazil.

In recent years, a consistent increase in the separatist movement has been detected in the states of the southern region of Brazil. Dominated by the Bolsonarist hordes, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná became the scene of racism against the northern and northeastern states in which PT voters predominate. Javier Milei's victory could lead racists in the southern region to dream of disconnecting their states from Brazil and incorporating them into Argentina.

In this context, it is impossible not to notice the contradictions that would occur. Argentina has 45.81 million inhabitants. Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná together have 29.53 million inhabitants. The new neoliberal State resulting from the union desired by Bolsonarists would be a culturally deformed monster with 75.34 million inhabitants, in which just over 1/3 would speak Portuguese and the majority would speak Spanish. Tensions between the two population groups will be inevitable, especially during presidential elections.

A beneficial aspect for Brazil of the creation of the new country would be the immediate collection of customs taxes for the export of drinks and food to those states. The cachaça used to make caipirinha by the gauchos would be much more expensive. But the chimarrão consumed by Brazilians could be imported from Paraguay.

The annexation of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná by Argentina would also cause curious repercussions on the judiciary of those states. Thousands of judges, prosecutors and federal prosecutors in those states are supporters of Bolsonarism and would initially feel happy to no longer be subject to a country governed by the PT. However, their salaries would probably be lowered to Argentine salary standards, something that would leave them very disappointed. Not to mention something even more explosive: in Argentina the justice system takes a firm stance against torture and military dictatorship and this would make Brazilian judges, prosecutors and federal prosecutors feel like outsiders in the nest.

Looking at things from the bright side, the National Council of Justice could simply archive the administrative process that investigates abuses in the Federal Regional Court - 4. That den of dishonest scammers would become a problem for the Judiciary of the neighboring country. Elected by Paraná, Sérgio Moro would have his political career cut short in Brazil. In which country would he try to continue it? Unelectable in Brazil, Deltan Dellanol would certainly resume his political career without any restrictions in the new country.

What to do with Brazilian military units in the southern region if the Bolsonarists decide to annex it to Javier Milei's Argentina? This would be a problem to be resolved peacefully by the commanders of the Brazilian Army, Navy and Air Force.

It is clear that at this point, this is all speculation. However, no one can underestimate the bestiality of a population that continues to applaud the genocidal captain whose future in Brazil can only be spending the rest of his life in prison. If he leads the separatist movement, Bolsonaro can free himself from all charges in Brazil by becoming the unelected vice president of South America's newest country. Will what is good for him really be bad for those who will remain Brazilian?