Lula is elected, so what?
The result of the 2018 Brazilian election was, to a large extent, produced by the wave of anti-PT sentiment created by Lava Jato and fueled by the media with the support of financial speculators. Brazil was politically destabilized until the market was able to unfairly interrupt Dilma Rousseff's term. The artificially created political vacuum sucked into center stage a weed that was growing in the sewer of the Brazilian Congress, an aggressive deputy who until then was known only for vocalizing inhuman beliefs and anti-democratic values.
For 4 years, Bolsonaro was protected by the financial market and by the gangsters of the bankers in parliament. Banks' profitability increased, but the Brazilian real economy shrank. The diplomatic blunders of the Bolsonaro family isolated my country more and more. Presidential support for the genocide of indigenous people and ecocide in Mato Grosso and the Amazon has decisively compromised Brazil's external image, negatively affecting our exports.
Bolsonaro wants to stay in power, but he can't let go of the cursed socio-economic legacy he created. Fuel prices soared, inflation as well. Victims of an elitist economic program designed to concentrate income and exclude the poor from the public budget, an immense portion of the Brazilian population became impoverished and became victims of hunger. Lula is in a position to win this share of the electorate and has already managed to divide the evangelicals.
Everything indicates that the 2022 election will not be decided by anti-PT sentiment, but by anti-Bolsonaro hatred. Desperate, the banana Führer threatens to stage a coup. But he does not have the strength to impose himself and, at least to date, he is afraid of provoking a civil war whose outcome will be unpredictable.
This tragicomic picture is only complete when we think about the Brazilian Armed Forces. Bolsonaro speaks as if he were the undisputed leader of all active military personnel, but everyone knows that this is not necessarily true. The internal and external context is not very conducive to a military coup like the one that took place in 1964. So, I suppose it would be foolhardy to try to carry out a coup d'état with the support of only police, militia and some terrorist military.
At the height of his popularity, the banana Führer chose not to risk causing a violent rupture. Now that he is electorally defeated, politically isolated and desperate, Bolsonaro is unable to do much to stay in the presidency without the support of the majority of the Brazilian population. His electoral victory is unlikely.
After eliminating any possibility of a third way by approaching Geraldo Alckmin, Lula is quickly devouring a portion of the Bolsonaro electoral base. In the House and Senate, the night of the long knives has already begun to be staged. The Bolsonaro family has already begun to be betrayed by members of its unstable parliamentary base. Hundreds of deputies and senators from the center and even from the right are already making it clear that they would rather survive politically with Lula than uselessly bury themselves with a leader in decline with no chance of being reelected.
As the election approaches, the visibility and credibility of the Superior Electoral Court tends to increase. The attacks against the Judiciary lost their ability to mobilize and radicalize the Bolsonaro electoral base. The arrests of militants and far-right political leaders who challenged the authority of the Brazilian Supreme Court deterred further attacks against the Judiciary. There is nothing Bolsonaro can do to guarantee his and his children's impunity after the elections.
The political game underwent a significant transformation in 2015. Another important transformation is taking place at this time. However, the damage caused by the Bolsonarist nightmare will be lasting.
When he takes office, Lula will receive a country torn apart with its weakened external credibility. He will have to deal with worthless military men who have become members of an authoritarian and criminal political organization. The political power of banks and financiers has increased too much, that of the neoliberal corporate press will not decline. In the Judiciary and in the Prosecutor's Office, the PT will find more enemies than public servants committed to preserving the democratic constitutional system created in 1988.