Aftermath of the Ukrainian War

Germans will run out of gas and will not sell cars and other manufactured goods to Russia. The Chinese gained a larger share of the Russian market.

Italian and French cheeses and wines not consumed by Russians will have to be spawned in Latin America at lower prices. A small victory for Brazilian consumers.

Spanish and Portuguese wines and olive oils will also flood Latin America at lower prices. The drop in Russian caviar imports will cause great discontent among the wealthy in the EU and US. The Chinese are likely to import more caviar from Russia.

Greece, the weakest economy in the EU, will lose a lot of money as Russian tourism declines and exports to Russia fall. The Greeks will be more economically fucked up by the war than the Germans, Italians and French.

With the Russian market closed for its electronics, South Korea and Japan will have to find new buyers. Failing that, more and more South Koreans and Japanese will be unemployed.

German, French, Italian, Spanish, etc. nationalism will grow and begin to jeopardize the very existence of the European Union. But in Russia, nationalism will reinforce political cohesion by preventing territorial fragmentation.

The Americans gain from the implosion of the EU and lose nothing from the isolation of Russia. In fact, the Russian bogeyman, real or imagined, being manufactured by the press will guarantee an increase in the sale of "made in the USA" weapons in the coming decades.

The German-Russia-China industrial, financial, energy and mercantile corridor, which could impose a new planetary economic order, has been torn apart. But that will not mean preserving US hegemony.

The US share of the world economy has been in decline for more than a decade and this phenomenon will not stop. The synergy between Russians and Chinese could redefine the game on a planetary scale as the EU reaps the rotten fruit the US has planted in Ukraine.

China will not submit to the policy of economic sanctions and political isolation that the US has set against Russia. But the Americans cannot sever economic and financial ties with the Chinese without causing economic stagnation at home.

The Chinese are much more cautious than their American counterparts. Russia will lose less from the conflict than the EU, but it seems plausible to me to imagine that China is in a position to benefit more from this new cold war than the US.

Brazil, for lack of a more adequate expression, is fucked and will continue to be fucked. The oil wealth was wasted. The devastation of the Amazon will perpetuate our diplomatic isolation. We don't gain anything and we can lose something, because what the US cannot do with the Chinese, they will do with the Brazilians.

American Big Techs lose the possibility of extracting profit from Russian internet users' data and metadata, Chinese Big Techs will be able to continue to do so. But the Russians are not likely to give up on developing their own information technology companies.

The US culture industry will no longer be able to make a profit in Russia. But Russians will likely continue to watch pirated American movies and series without paying royalties. The virtual circulation of this type of piracy tends to increase and the US will only be able to complain.

The legacy of the war will be the destruction caused by the battles, the pain of those who lost their relatives and the emptiness in the lives of the refugees. At first they will be treated well by Ukraine's neighbors. After a while, Ukrainian refugees will be seen as unwelcome intruders.

It is difficult to say how the Russians will react to the success of a campaign that has also claimed casualties among Russian soldiers. Nazis who are not arrested or killed will flee to the European Union, where they are likely to cause problems for Europeans.

Maybe Netflix should make a movie about the SpaceX rocket that flies through space-time to 1962 to replace the boy Putin with his pro-American clone created in England. That way Americans wouldn't need to be ashamed of having supported Nazis and lost a war in Ukraine in 2022.

A major twist: China discovers Elon Musk's evil plan and sends two rockets to save young Putin. The SpaceX crew is arrested and sent to North Korea. "Made in China" clones of Americans are sent back to the future on SpaceX to report the mission's success. The trauma of the episode shapes Putin's personality. The End.